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Previous metascientific research estimates that ~2% of scientists are guilty of faking at least one paper. In opposition, this paper argues (1) these estimates are naive, and are irreparably contaminated with procedural and social desirability biases; (2) the proportion of ", "textStyle": {} } }, { "startIndex": 600, "endIndex": 624, "textRun": { "content": "scientists faking papers", "textStyle": { "italic": true } } }, { "startIndex": 624, "endIndex": 738, "textRun": { "content": " is a poor frame for understanding the problem of scientific mendacity, and less important than the proportion of ", "textStyle": {} } }, { "startIndex": 738, "endIndex": 760, "textRun": { "content": "fake scientific output", "textStyle": { "italic": true } } }, { "startIndex": 760, "endIndex": 1203, "textRun": { "content": "; (3) there is limited evidence for the trustworthiness of this output, but it all suggests the proportion of fake papers is substantially higher; (4) work that could more accurately define this figure does not exist yet, due primarily to wilful ignorance on the parts of scientists, scientific institutions, and funding bodies; (5) even low estimates of the scale of this problem represent an existential threat to the scientific enterprise.\n", "textStyle": {} } } ], "paragraphStyle": { "namedStyleType": "NORMAL_TEXT", "direction": "LEFT_TO_RIGHT", "borderBetween": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderTop": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderBottom": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderLeft": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderRight": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "indentFirstLine": { "magnitude": 36, "unit": "PT" }, "shading": { "backgroundColor": {} }, "pageBreakBefore": false } } }, { "startIndex": 1203, "endIndex": 1204, "paragraph": { 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], "paragraphStyle": { "headingId": "h.8qz8f8sp3xcr", "namedStyleType": "HEADING_1", "alignment": "CENTER", "direction": "LEFT_TO_RIGHT", "borderBetween": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderTop": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderBottom": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderLeft": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderRight": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "indentFirstLine": { "unit": "PT" }, "shading": { "backgroundColor": {} }, "pageBreakBefore": false } } }, { "startIndex": 1265, "endIndex": 1578, "paragraph": { "elements": [ { "startIndex": 1265, "endIndex": 1578, "textRun": { "content": "Within science, \u2018fabrication\u2019 is inventing reported data, summary data, or statistical outcomes, \u2018falsification\u2019 is manipulating any part of the research process sufficiently to actively misrepresent real research. Together with plagiarism, they represent the acts which constitute serious scientific misconduct.\n", "textStyle": {} } } ], "paragraphStyle": { "namedStyleType": "NORMAL_TEXT", "direction": "LEFT_TO_RIGHT", "borderBetween": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderTop": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderBottom": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderLeft": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "borderRight": { "color": {}, "width": { "unit": "PT" }, "padding": { "unit": "PT" }, "dashStyle": "SOLID" }, "indentFirstLine": { "magnitude": 36, "unit": "PT" }, "shading": { "backgroundColor": {} }, "pageBreakBefore": false } } }, { "startIndex": 1578, "endIndex": 2462, "paragraph": { "elements": [ { "startIndex": 1578, "endIndex": 2462, "textRun": { "content": "Both can be difficult to define. Falsification in particular begins somewhere on a continuum of questionable research practices which includes a constellation of ways data may be misrepresented: managing outliers, post-hoc subgroup analysis, outcome switching, p-hacking, etc. Fabrication is less slippery - either data is invented or it is not - but may also cross over with data imputation, typographical errors and clerical mistakes, and other forms of negligence or sloppiness (such as the piecemeal cleaning and reconstruction of biological images, which has both benign and nefarious components). 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